Monday, October 02, 2006

Democrats poised to take control of Senate

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Alright, I'm getting ahead of myself, and I remain somewhat pessimistic, but MSNBC is reporting on new polls that suggest "Democrats are in striking distance of taking control of the Senate". The races in ten states -- Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Missouri, New Jersey, Washington, Maryland, Ohio, Montana, and Tennessee -- "show the following:

  • Two Republican incumbents in very serious trouble, Burns [MT] and Santorum [PA].
  • Four Republican incumbents tied with their challengers, Chafee [RI], Allen [VA], Talent [MO], and DeWine [OH].
  • One Democratic incumbent tied with his challenger, Menendez [NJ].
  • One Democratic incumbent with a real lead, Cantwell [WA].
  • One Democratic open seat with a Democrat in the lead, Cardin in Maryland.
  • One Republican open seat with a tie, Tennessee.

The results show that the Democrats have a real chance of gaining control of the Senate. However, as the election approaches, Democrats may have to lead by significant amounts to counteract the well-funded Republican get-out-the-vote effort. And almost every toss up seat needs to break for the Democrats for them to gain the six seats that they need."

Possible, but not likely.

However, as Chris Bowers argues, "[a]s Republicans unravel in almost every way you can imagine, Democrats clearly have the breeze blowing in their direction". So much so that "the Senate is in play right now, even if the odds still favor Republican control". Still "pretty amazing".

Perhaps I need to be a bit more optimistic.

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