Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Turnout, turnout, turnout

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Chris Bowers of MyDD looks at some poll numbers and concludes this: "There is no way we can win this election unless we turn out Democrats at high levels."

This is "obvious," of course, but the key point is that polls of likely voters show a much closer race than polls of registered voters: "If we hold a nine-point edge among registered voters, than we should also hold a nine-point advantage among likely voters. If we fail to do so, then we have utterly failed in our field operations, our message, and our media strategy." Right now, the advantage is not the same -- a 10.4-point lead for Democrats among registered voters, but only a 6.0-point lead among likely votes -- suggesting that predictive turnout favours the Republicans, who in recent elections have done so well to turn out their base. In a close race, in close races all over the country, a Republican victory in turnout could prove to be the difference between retaking one or both houses of Congress and facing at least two more years of Republican control.

To my American readers: Get out and vote!

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