Thursday, July 13, 2006

Doubting Hillary

Will Hillary run in '08? Yes. Will she win the Democratic nomination? Maybe. Would she win the election? A lot depends on what happens this November, as well as on who the Republican nominee is, as well as on variables like Iraq and the economy, but, well, there's also the paradox of Hillary herself.

WaPo looks at that paradox here. (Reader beware, however: The piece relies heavily on poll numbers that clearly don't tell the whole story. Moreover, there are many different Hillary-related narratives making their way around the media, mainstream and otherwise. Sure, many Democrats have problems with her, and this doubt could derail her in the primaries, but it doesn't make much sense to jump to any conclusions this early in the game. She may very well be coasting on name-recognition and she may very well go down. But she may just as likely surprise her doubters and naysayers all the way to the White House. And would that be so bad? Seriously, would it?)

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  • Will America's next president be a woman?

    If Hillary Clinton chooses to run in the 2008 presidential elections, she would have a better chance at winning than any other democratic candidate. Hillary Clinton has two unique advantages: she is a woman and two, she has Bill. You would never think being a woman would be an advantage for a presidential candidate but America is seeded and ready for change.
    Some experts think that Hillary won't even make it past the primaries but they're wrong, for quite a few reasons. According to the polling report in June 2008:

    Polls %
    John McCain (R) 47%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
    Unsure 13%

    Democrat %
    Hillary Clinton 31%
    Al Gore 18%
    John Kerry 14%
    John Edwards 11%
    Joe Biden 4%
    Mark Warner 3%
    Wesley Clark 3%
    Evan Bayh 2%
    Russ Feingold 2%
    Bill Richardson 2%
    Chris Dodd 1%
    Tom Vilsack 0%
    Unsure 10%

    Food for thought....Why's

    Stronger voter turnout

    I'm predicting that the coming elections of 2008 we will see more voters at the polls than ever before. Today's young American's have faced more grief, anger, frustration, fear and worry about the future of this nation and the world, then their parents ever had too. The turmoil of war, 911, Iran, Hurricane Katrina, the environmental cause, the Immigrant issue and the list goes on; has awaken the young American vote. I believe we will see more young Americans voting and more minorities voting in 2008. This demographic pull is coming to the 2008 polls and it will be significant.

    The stereotypes of woman are still relevant but not set in stone, anymore.

    The younger voters are very open to a woman leading this nation. The baby boomers are hesitant but open, and the older American's will become open because Hillaryhas Bill at her side. Each generation has its own biases but the germinated path of woman's rights has had over forty years in social change; thus leaning towards the acceptance of woman as equals and leaders. It's not far from reality that a woman can take her place as leader of this nation.

    Bill Clinton in the background

    Bill Clinton is still well respected. He can no longer run for office but getting Hillary in, is one way to resurrect Bill. Bill Clinton's background role also puts a sense of ease for those still uncertain in Hillary's leadership abilities. Bill Clinton is a political security blanket for those who might object to a woman as president.

    International Relationships

    The turn of events during Bush administration has created this key player- American'sincreased concern in International affairs. Women are known as great mediators and the communicators of patience. Men also tend to trust women more. A woman's ability to authenticate our nation's sincerity and trust could strengthen international relationships. If Hillary becomes president, establishing good relations with foreign leaders will not be an unfamiliar ground to her. Hillary, as the wife of a previous president, has met these leaders before.

    Al Gore- The Environment

    Al Gore is passionately voicing the magnitude of Global warming. We still have another year and half before the elections but by that time, I believe environmental concerns will supersede one's loyalty to a political party. Al Gore once walked by Bill Clinton's side as Vice President. Al Gores relationship with Bill and Hillary will assure some Americans, that the White House will make environmental concerns a priority. Al Gore, Bill and Hillary are all advocates for the environmental cause but who America trusts, could weigh in favor of Hillary Clinton. It would be foolish for the green party ticket to even pick a candidate if Hillary runs because she will take most of those votes.

    Health Care

    National health care is something that Hillary and Bill Clinton have a long reliable history as advocate's for this. In my opinion, it's an over the rainbow promise because an 8.3 trillion debt nation stands in reality lane. Yet, come 2008 it will be a selling point for many, even if it's on borrowed money.

    People will choose a leader not based by their political party stance.

    You can be a Republican and vote Democratic. You can be a Democrat and vote Republican. Political party stance will not be as valued as before. People want to know what matters to the candidate and crossing over party lines won't be considered a compromise.

    Social Change

    Today, social change dismisses the once required respect of our leadership. We're slightly rebellious, as we speak our negative opinions without any concerns in the value of appropriateness. Very few are shocked by the condemnation of any president, anymore. Democracy is freedom of speech, of any nature, but if it entails a voice against our leadership, it should still be required by its citizens, to be done respectfully. Times have changed.

    Hillary and Bill Clinton have spoken very harshly at the Bush administration and at times hypocritically, but still to do so, can gain the rebel vote. It is true that America is divided on the war in Iraq and our emotions are strong. We don't want another war. The candidate America chooses will speak those concerns and agree with the majority, no matter how they say it. Judgment for appropriateness is a dying social structure in America and some support that.

    If Hillary runs she won't get my vote. I do have many friends who are Democratic. We agreeto disagree and yet to passionately respect our individual uniqueness but for me, she wouldn't be my choice. I have read from a few notable prophets recently, whom also predict that our next president will be a woman. I'm sure that will make more news as we draw closer to the elections.

    To conclude, I'm going out on the limb today on my blog and stating- "If Hillary Clinton runs I predict she will be America's next president." The land is seeded and ready. See yah, in 2008.

    Sincerely, Raven Smith

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:26 AM  

  • Thank you for your thoughtful comments, Raven Smith. There's much food for thought here.

    I'm just not quite as ready to make that prediction. There are still far too many obstacles in Hillary's way.

    By Blogger Michael J.W. Stickings, at 12:00 PM  

  • By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:12 PM  

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