Sunday, December 15, 2013

Behind the Ad: Democratic super-PAC attacks leading GOP Louisiana Senate contender

Who: Senate Majority PAC (Democratic super-PAC)

Where: Louisiana

What's going on: Yesterday I posted a new ad from Louisiana Democratic Senate incumbent Mary Landrieu. She's in a dogfight to keep her seat and is distancing herself from Obamacare in an attempt to remain competitive.

GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), considered her most serious challenger, is now the target of a new ad by a Democratic super-PAC. In the ad, the narrator says that "in Louisiana, we expect leaders to solve problems, not become part of the problem."

According to The Hill Times:
[The ad] cites his support for the Republican Study Committee's 2014 budget and Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) proposed 2012 budget.

The former would eventually raise the Social Security eligibility age to 70, and the latter would reform Medicare in a way that would result in higher premiums for seniors, starting nearly a decade from now, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

"That's Congressman Cassidy's record in the House. He'd hurt us even more in the Senate," the narrator closes.

A few things to know about Louisiana, courtesy of Charlie Cook, is that Landrieu has never receiver higher than 52 percent of the vote. The state is trending towards the GOP since Landrieu last had to defend her seat. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat, five of six congressional districts, the governorship, and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. And Obama got just 41 percent of the vote in 2012.

In other words, this one is definitely in play.

For what it's worth,  The Times Picayune reported this, regarding a poll conducted in mid-November:

In a hypothetical Senate race held today (i.e., mid-November), Landrieu would lead Cassidy by seven points... But the data questioned whether she would be able to clinch the 50 percent necessary to win outright. With Tea Party-endorsed Republican Rob Maness receiving just under 10 percent in the poll, Cassidy could conceivably win in a runoff if he could claim all or most of Maness' support for himself.

It should be noted that this poll was also done before the worst of the Obamacare rollout debacle. 

Lots happening there. 

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