Monday, November 05, 2012

The alignment

By Mustang Bobby

If you're following the polling numbers — and chances are that if you're reading this, you have been — Nate Silver is saying that the national polls are showing President Obama with a "modest lead":

This happens to be a reasonably friendly group of polls for Mr. Obama, and it's more likely than not that at least some national polls published late Sunday or on Monday will still show Mitt Romney ahead.

Nevertheless, there is enough data to conclude that Mr. Obama probably has a slight edge from national surveys, which until recently had pointed toward a tie — or perhaps a modest advantage for Mr. Romney in the immediate aftermath of the Denver debate.

A number of these polls had very large sample sizes, meaning that the results are less likely than usual to have resulted from statistical variance.

But the modest gains that Mr. Obama has made in the high-profile national surveys should not be that much of a surprise. We've observed the race shifting toward him over the past two to three weeks in polls of swing states, where overwhelming majorities of polls have had Mr. Obama ahead over the past few days.

This leaves a little breathing room, but not much. Still, Mr. Silver has the president with an 86.3% chance of winning.

Almost there.

Oh, wait; George F. Will says that Mitt Romney will win 321 electoral votes. So I guess Nate Silver and his algorithms are wrong and Mr. Will and his bow tie are right. Well, that settles that. After all, pundits are never wrong.

Oh, wait

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

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  • Just for the record, Nate Silver now gives Obama a 92.2% chance of winning. Normally, I would give George Will his due, but unfortunately, I've read him before.

    By Anonymous Frankly Curious, at 11:25 PM  

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