Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Just f-ing vote, and other Election Day morning thoughts

By tmcbpatriot

Finally, it's that time! It's been a long road to get here and soon it will be all over. At least for a few days until we start figuring out who is going to run in 2016. 

As for today, I honestly have no clue what is going to happen, and here's why: 

Family Circle Cookie Contest -- The candidate whose wife has the best cookie recipe will win the election. Advantage: Obama

7-Eleven Coffee Cup Contest -- Consumers buying coffee at 7-Eleven convenience stores can choose between an Obama or Romney cup. Whichever candidate's cup sells the most will win the election. Advantage: Obama

Scholastic Kid's Poll -- Whoever wins the Scholastic Student Vote poll will win the election. Advantage: Obama

Halloween Mask Sales -- The candidate whose Halloween mask sells the most will win the election. Advantage: Obama (Caveat: Romney holds a two percent lead over Obama, according to BuyCostumes.com.)
The Lakers Law -- If the Lakers go to the NBA Championship during an election year, the Republican candidate will be in the Oval Office. This has been true eight times in the past – 1952, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004. It was wrong four years ago, though, as the Lakers won the title but John McCain didn't win the election. The Lakers missed the NBA Finals, which was won by the Miami Heat. Advantage: Obama

Blinking -- Whichever candidate blinks the most while talking during the debates will lose the election. During the first debate, Obama blinked an average 70.8 times per minute while Romney averaged 52.8 blinks per minute. Advantage: Romney (I did not find a tally for all three debates. BTW, the "blinking rule" has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1980.)

The Redskins Rule -- Since 1936, the Washington Redskins' performance in their final home game before the election has served as one predictor of how the general election will swing. If the Redskins win, the incumbent stays in power. If they don't, the challenger takes the Oval Office. The glaring exception is in 2004 when the Redskins and John Kerry both lost. The Panthers defeated the Redskins this past Sunday. Advantage: Romney 

By my count, Obama is clearly the favorite, but since I am superstitious I will be sure not to walk under any ladders between now and Wednesday. But honestly, anyone who says they know who will win the election is either a software developer for a voting machine company or Nate Silver. I am neither.

Nate Silver, of course, is the guy to go to when you want to know what is happening with polling. and he does not disappoint. He currently has Obama with 315 Electoral College votes and a 92% chance of winning. If I were a betting man, I would have to go with Romney just because the odds are so insane that I would make a killing. Nate even bet that tool Joe Scarborough $2,000 that Obama would win. Tellingly, Joe did not take the bet.

So who will win? Who the fuck knows? All I can say is please fucking vote, and if you are feeling negative about Obama's chances, be sure to turn your underwear inside out. I hear that helps to change your luck.

(Cross-posted at Take My Country Back.)

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