Monday, October 01, 2012

Obama competitive in Arizona?

According to a GOP-leaning polling firm, High Ground Public Affairs Consultants, Mitt Romney has a relatively slight lead over President Obama in Arizona, 46% to 42%.

According to David Pinar at

I haven't checked demographics age data, but 25% 62+ seems awfully high. But the party registration is easy to check. From the AZ Secretary of State, the registration roll from August 2012 has it:  

35.97% Republican
31.88% Democrat
31.23% Independent

Their demographics over samples Republicans by 5%, under samples Independents by 7%, and slightly over samples Democrats. Obama is likely almost tied with Romney and Carmona (Democratic Senate candidate) is likely leading Flake (GOP Senate candidate) – he is very popular with Independents.

I can't imagine Obama would really be competitive in Arizona, but if Republicans want to claim that every poll, with the possible exception of Rasmussen, is biased, I can choose to believe Obama can win Arizona. 

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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