Saturday, April 16, 2011

Will new Republican governors be a drag on GOP chances in 2012?

A quick scan of approval ratings for new Republican governors would certainly suggest that they have not come out of the gate strongly. Here are a few headlines that appeared over the past four or five weeks.

We all know that polls come and go and it is a long time before the 2012 elections, but if the direction these governors have chosen remains unpopular, it can't help but have an impact on the federal election in a year and half.

As for the presidential election, Florida and Ohio are certainly interesting as they have gone back and forth between Democrats and Republicans in the last three election cycles. Wisconsin was a razor thin win for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 before going big for Obama in 2008. Pennsylvania and Michigan were fairly narrow Democratic wins in 2000 and 2004 before Obama took them by a more comfortable margin. Bottom line is that these are all the kinds of states Republicans would have to look at if they hope to regain the White House.

As for House races, it could make things quite volatile.

As I say, early days, but if this is about direction and the electorate's displeasure with rather dramatic ideological shifts at the state level, a lot of things could happen.

(Cross-posted to Lippmann's Ghost)

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