Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Reaction predictions 2

By Michael J.W. Stickings

See also: Reaction Predictions 1.

Creature

  • I'm looking at a popular vote win for Obama of 54% to 45% (1% 3rd party).
  • This will translate into a huge electoral college win, but I suck at math so I'll leave that to the experts.
  • I think the Dems will fall just shy of that elusive 60th seat for the Senate and pick up 29 seats in the House.
Mustang Bobby

  • Obama will win, but I doubt that he will get over 50% of the vote and over 300 electoral votes.
  • I think the Democrats will gain seats in the Senate but not clear 60. I think they will add to their House margin, perhaps as high as 250. I don’t hold out hope that the three Cuban-American Republicans here in South Florida (the Diaz-Balart brothers and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) will lose, but they will have the daylights scared out of them.
  • I think the Prop 8 – the same-sex marriage measure in California – will be very close but will fail. In Florida, Amendment 2 – the same thing as Prop 8 – will pass, ironically because of the high turnout for Barack Obama in the African-American communities. They tend to run conservative on issues such as gay rights, and they will probably be the margin that gets the Yes vote over 60%, the supermajority needed to pass a constitutional amendment in Florida.

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